Historical Ignorance: a Compass from the Past to the Future

©"Surreal Installation of Hanging Clocks" by Kader Azra Namuslu via Pexels

The Arctic Monkeys’ overlooked 2018  album "Tranquility Base Hotel & Casino” offers a very interesting portrait of gentrification, mass data collection and political unrest. These themes have only grown more urgent since its release. The striking correspondence between the lyrics and the current state of global politics made it difficult to ignore the predictive power of existentialist work, such as Ray Bradbury’s “Fahrenheit 451” and George Orwell’s “1984”. 

It seems that lately we are craving items from a different time period, such as vintage clothing, pictures taken on digital cameras from the 2000s, and listening to music on vinyl and CDs. All of these are signs of turning away from the tide of modernization in all areas of life: social interactions, political processes and even art consumption. An interesting feature of these trends is that they bring back the physical objects in hopes of invoking the same feeling of calm and serenity specific to the times that they originate from. At the same time, they come back lacking the exact social, economic and political context that birthed their appeal. This method of consumption is comparable to collecting books for their cover art and never reading them: the pieces themselves have visual appeal, which keeps us from engaging with the history lying underneath.

The focus of this article thus becomes just that: turning a blind eye to the past, or to put it bluntly,  historical ignorance. Is this ignorance dangerous in the first place? Should we constantly be aware of the full background of the pieces we are wearing, the art we consume and create, the stories we interact with? Why do we keep up historical ignorance? Ultimately, how can we use selective ignorance in today’s world?

First off, the human brain is an amazing machine, able to process impressive amounts of information and ideas. We often find ourselves living in the past: thinking of clever phrases that would have saved an awkward situation, while also worrying about the future: the outcome of an exam, a future job, an approaching deadline. However, impressive does not mean infinite, as there is only so much time in a day for pondering and so much space in our head for worries. In this context, a degree of selective ignorance serves as a mechanism allowing us to prioritise the immediate demands of the present, at the expense of reflection about the past and future. This is not necessarily a chosen state of mind, but a byproduct of a culture that puts the 'now' on a pedestal, leaving the individual unaware of the weight carried by the things that came before.

Let’s then explore the limits of ignorance. What does full ignorance achieve? On one hand, living in ignorance can offer a temporary reprieve, as it allows one to enjoy the present without the mental tax of retrospection into the past and projection of the future, thus increasing life quality. On the other hand, it leads to a complete lack of social awareness, causing one to get lost in situations where historical context governs the behaviour expected of those involved. This erodes life quality, causing one to be perceived as offensive and unfit to be present in various social circles. At the other extreme end of the spectrum of ignorance we get symmetrically opposite results: a complete absence from the present in favor of memories of the past and possible futures. The middle ground sounds like a nicer place to be.

From this analysis, it seems as though ignorance is synonymous with the intertemporal exchange of information. This concept is often reflected in economics via the intertemporal choice theory, which analyses decision making by taking into account the trade-offs between costs and benefits that happen at different points in time. People’s decisions  can then be predicted due to their time preferences, represented by the “future discount rate”. A strong preference for the present is illustrated by a high future discount rate, where the future is valued a lot less compared to the present. In this case, historical ignorance would be at a maximum, fostering present efficiency. Conversely, in the case of someone with a strong preference for the future, the future discount rate would be near zero or even negative, reflecting a higher value of the future compared to the present. Here, historical ignorance would be at minimum levels, though at the grave cost of being in a state of paralysis where the present becomes treacherous to navigate.

Economics is a science that stands on the shoulders of giants, as well as everyone who has ever contributed to it with ideas, critique, academic papers, informed and uninformed opinion, descriptive art and so on. It is continuous, cyclical and unpredictable all at once. Time analysis thus serves as a crucial tool for understanding current positioning within historical trends, contributing to  future decisions as well. In this sense, selective ignorance serves as a compass through the sea of opinions, perceptions, and interpretations. If neglected, the compass will prove useless in guiding the ship through troubled waters, simply letting it go in circles. If abused, that same compass will be useless again, stealing focus from other crucial factors of decision making, causing an inevitable crash.

This is exactly where the struggle lies: how do we find the correct way to use historical ignorance as a tool for efficiency in some times, and guidance in others? How much do we allow ourselves to get lost in scary parallels between authoritarian writings and present geopolitics? The answer is somewhere in the middle: selective ignorance via an optimized future discount rate that allows one to analyse enough to be aware of ongoing trends and recognize what can be ignored in order to be functional in daily life. Do not reject modernity, but rather learn to master it. Take control by knowing what built it, and thus what can be used to re-build it. Reclaim the present by being aware of the past.