Chancellor Scholz’s cabinet is stuck in turmoil as his traffic light coalition continues to underdeliver on its promises and collaborate effectively. As of September 2024, the German government — made up of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Greens, and the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP) — has reached a new low in public opinion. Recent polls reveal that only 3% of Germans believe Scholz’ three-party alliance is benefiting the country. Likewise, the government is struggling with a net approval rating of -48, with over half the population expressing discontent with its performance.
As federal elections are slated for fall next year, all three parties must reassess their political strategies and roles within the current government to remain competitive against their rivals: If elections were held today, the traffic light coalition would likely secure a mere 30.7 percent of the vote — a far cry from its 51.8 percent in 2021. Out of the three parties, the situation seems to be most dire for the FDP (4 percent), projected to even fall short of the 5 percent threshold necessary to enter parliament.
As Scholz’s cabinet is torn apart by internal conflicts and public dissatisfaction continues to grow, populist movements like the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are steadily gaining traction. Capitalizing on widespread frustration with mainstream politics, these parties have become more than just protest outlets, with people increasingly viewing both groups as credible alternatives. With these two forces on the rise, Germany’s political landscape is changing drastically, raising questions about the future of its coalition-based governance and the resilience of its democratic institutions.
The recent state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg — closely anticipated as some of 2024’s most pivotal domestic political events — highlight this profound shift in German politics. Understood as a major mood test for all major German parties, these three elections also offer a glimpse into the political issues and debates that might define the federal elections next year. With less than a year left until then, it’s crucial to critically examine the outcomes of these distinct yet interconnected elections.
Overview of the Results
In September 2024, voters in the three eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg participated in elections marked by heightened political polarization and a pronounced shift toward right-leaning discourse. Central issues such as migration, social safety, crime, and economic development dominated voters’ choices, driving historically high turnouts across all three states (Thuringia: 73%, Saxony: 75%, Brandenburg: 72.9%). Despite these commonalities, however, the electoral outcomes varied significantly, highlighting the unique political landscapes and local dynamics that shaped voter behavior in each constituency.
Thuringia: The AfD’s Historic Victory and the Fall of the Left
September 1st, 2024, will go down in history as the day on which the AfD (32.8 percent) won its first state elections in Germany. Under the leadership of former PE and history teacher Björn Höcke, the ‘verified right-wing extremist’ party secured Thuringia far ahead of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which came in second with 23.6 percent of the vote. Given the AfD’s steady lead in the polls for over two years, this result wasn’t unexpected; yet that doesn’t make it less notable.
The incumbent Left Party (13.1 percent) was punished by voters and lost over half of its support compared to 2019, thus only coming in fourth. On one hand, this can be attributed to the unpopularity of the Left-SPD-Greens minority government that governed Thuringia for the past five years. However, the most significant reason for the Left Party’s decline is undoubtedly the electoral debut of the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which secured 15.8% of the vote in its first-ever state election.
For decades, Sahra Wagenknecht was one of the most famous but also controversial politicians from the Left Party. In January 2024, she and her closest allies — dissatisfied with a party which, according to them, is increasingly appealing to “lifestyle progressives” instead of focusing on traditional workers’ concerns — severed ties with the Left and founded their own movement: the BSW.
Finally, the unpopularity of Scholz’s traffic light coalition resulted in heavy losses for the SPD, Greens, and FDP. Of the three, only the SPD (6.1 percent) managed to hold onto seats in the state parliament. The Greens and FDP, both of which only narrowly entered the Thuringian assembly in 2019, saw their support collapse to 3.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
Saxony: The CDU’s Narrow Win and the AfD’s Growing Threat
On the same day as the election in Thuringia, the CDU (31.9 percent) barely managed to avoid a second victory for the AfD (30.6 percent) in the neighboring state of Saxony, winning by a mere 1.3 percent margin — or roughly 29,800 votes. Incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer led the CDU to victory in a campaign that felt like a head-to-head duel between the two top contenders.
Much like in Thuringia, the newly formed BSW finished third, garnering 11.8 percent. Meanwhile, all other parties previously represented in the state parliament experienced a decline in support, falling into the single digits. In a historic low, the once-popular Left Party finished behind both the SPD and Greens, garnering only 4.5 percent of the vote; Scholz’s SPD managed to mobilize its voters for a 7.3 percent share, with the Greens finishing close behind with 5.1 percent. In contrast, the FDP, with a dismal 0.9 percent of the vote, failed to gain entry into the Saxon state parliament for the third consecutive time.
Brandenburg: The SPD’s Last-Minute Gamble to Defeat the AfD
Last but not least, Brandenburg held its state elections on September 22, 2024. Just like in the other two states, the AfD (29.2 percent) maintained its upward trajectory, challenging the long-ruling SPD (30.9 percent) to a run-off it ended up losing by a hair. Dietmar Woidke, the incumbent Minister President, is by far the most popular politician in Brandenburg, despite his affiliation with the SPD. In his campaign, Woidke strategically distanced himself from the federal branch of the SPD and the traffic light government, questioning some of the SPD’s key national policies and barring Scholz from any significant appearance during the Brandenburg campaign.
Most significant, however, was Woidke’s ultimatum that he was going to retire from politics unless his SPD won against the AfD. After being in power for almost eleven years, the SPD politician turned the state election into a binary choice between the far-right AfD and himself, thus attempting to rally supporters of all democratic parties behind him. To the dismay of his CDU colleagues, even Saxony’s Minister President Kretschmer urged the people in Brandenburg to vote for Woidke.
The results speak for themselves. While Woidke managed to win against the AfD, his maneuver failed to persuade AfD voters to cast their ballot for the SPD, instead harming other democratic forces. Above all, the Greens (4.1 percent) were the ones who were hurt the most, losing 47.000 voters to the SPD and, subsequently, all their seats in the Brandenburg parliament. Woidke’s strategy also didn’t stop the BSW (13.5 percent) mobilizing a significant chunk of voters, finishing in third place even ahead of the CDU, which only gained 12.1 percent of the vote. Much like in the other two states, the BSW’s success also decimated the Left Party (3 percent), subsequently kicking it out of the state assembly. Alas, the newly elected legislature in Brandenburg will consist of merely four parties: the SPD, AfD, BSW, and CDU.
The Rise of the AfD and BSW
Looking at the just-mentioned results, it’s obvious that the AfD and BSW are the two biggest winners of the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. In a hypothetical assembly shared by these three states such electoral outcomes would translate to 102 and 44 seats in a chamber of 296 seats respectively, meaning that they would miss a majority by only 3 seats.
The AfD’s Capture of the Young Vote
Since its founding in 2013, the AfD has turned from a primarily eurosceptic movement to a right-wing populist force that can now be considered one of the strongest political forces in eastern Germany. The AfD’s victory in Thuringia marks the first time a far-right party has triumphed in a German state election since the fall of the Weimar Republic. Back in 1929, Thuringia was also the first state where Hitler’s Nazi Party secured enough public support to join a state government. While historical parallels should be drawn cautiously, it’s notable that, once again, Thuringia has emerged as a key state in the rise of a far-right movement in Germany.
One of the most striking takeaways from this year’s three state elections is the AfD’s surging popularity among young voters. In Thuringia, for instance, an impressive 38 percent of all 18 to 24-year-olds voted for the far-right party. According to a recent study on the voting behavior of young German adults, this can be partly explained by their particularly high expectations of the state’s responsibilities and a commonly shared feeling that the government was not acting in their interests. In particular, the AfD manages to appeal to young voters by effectively tapping into these grievances by amplifying political issues and offering oversimplified solutions. The AfD’s strong presence on social media platforms, especially TikTok, has allowed the party’s messages to reach a younger audience directly, bypassing traditional media filters.
The same study also suggests that young people are also less likely to perceive the AfD as far-right since many of them don’t conceptualize politics following a left-right spectrum, leading to a normalization of extremist ideologies. Rüdiger Maas, the author of the study, further highlights that other parties’ attempts to adopt the AfD’s issues and political demands only accelerate the normalization process and reinforce people’s belief in the AfD’s competence.
The BSW: A New Player in German Politics
As previously mentioned, the BSW is the brainchild of the former Left Party icon Sahra Wagenknecht. After years of public infighting concerning the direction of her party, she founded her own movement, which combines progressive economic initiatives with conservative migration and pro-Russian foreign policy demands. In its party platform, the BSW primarily offers plenty of criticism of current German politics, while barely providing any solutions.
Concrete political demands, few and far between, are being drowned out by the noise of populist rhetoric. Leading up to the state elections in Thuringia, the BSW’s campaign posters included slogans like “Diplomacy, not warmongering” and “Math, not gender politics.” If German politics doesn’t drastically change, Wagenknecht repeatedly contends, “we probably won’t be able to recognize our country again [in ten years].”
The polarizing rhetoric seems to have struck a nerve: in the three recent state elections, the BSW convinced hundreds of thousands of voters of its competence, particularly on issues of social justice, the war in Ukraine, and ‘east German’ interests. Unsurprisingly, Wagenknecht’s party received most of its votes from former supporters of the Left Party — however, it also managed to mobilize many who had not cast a ballot in the previous elections.
Now, with the federal elections less than one year away and strong results in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, the BSW needs to make a choice. Mathematically, there’s no possible majority coalition in Saxony and Brandenburg that doesn’t include either the AfD or BSW. Since all other parties have vowed to keep the AfD out of office, the BSW has likely found itself in a kingmaking position. However, it remains to be seen whether Wagenknecht’s party is ready to shoulder the burden of governance, or if it will remain in opposition where criticism is easier than compromise.
What’s Next?
Coalition-building in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg will be exceptionally difficult. Both the AfD and BSW have gained significant ground, making it very challenging for the other parties to form stable governments. The CDU, in particular, faces a dilemma. In Thuringia, it has vowed never to govern with either the AfD or the Left Party, but it may soon find itself needing to collaborate with the BSW to avoid political deadlock.
Meanwhile, the AfD is already obstructing policymaking in Thuringia. In the first plenary session following their electoral victory, the party began blocking parliamentary procedure. With over a third of the seats in Thuringia and Brandenburg, the AfD now enjoys a so-called “blocking minority” (or “Sperrminorität”). This allows the party to block any political decision that requires a two-thirds majority, including the appointment of key regional officials and amendments to the state constitutions.
On a federal level, the CDU has clearly shifted to the right under the leadership of veteran politician and former chairman of BlackRock Germany’s advisory board Friedrich Merz, hoping to reclaim voters lost to the AfD. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be undetermined. According to current polling, the CDU is nonetheless forecast to win next year’s federal elections.
Simultaneously, all three traffic light parties are confronted with significant challenges as they must respond to the recent electoral outcomes. The FDP has already announced its intention to sharpen its profile in the federal government, with many political observers predicting that the party might use upcoming budget negotiations to trigger early elections. The Greens, too, are in crisis mode. In the wake of heavy losses, party leaders and youth organization board members have resigned, with the party expected to shift to the right under the leadership of the current Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck.
Chancellor Scholz, meanwhile, has gained little relief from the SPD’s narrow victory in Brandenburg. His abysmal popularity risks leading him to Biden’s fate, with speculation that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius — currently one of Germany’s most popular politicians — could replace Scholz as the SPD’s candidate in 2025.
As Germany approaches its next federal election, the political landscape remains in flux, with populist forces rising and established parties on the defensive. The coming months will determine whether the traffic light coalition can regain public trust, or if the AfD and BSW will continue their ascension, reshaping Germany’s political future.
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