Enemy at NATO’s Gates – Unprecedented Russian Air Provocation
- Mikołaj Miernik
- Sep 20
- 7 min read
Last week, the Polish airspace was subject to unprecedented violation by Russian drones approaching from the directions of Belarus and Ukraine. During the night of 9–10 September, allied F-16 and F-35 fighter jets, for the first time in history, neutralized Russian military targets over NATO territory. While no casualties or injuries were reported, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and prompted a meeting of the United Nations Security Council. This incident represents yet another hostile act by the Russian Federation against NATO, despite the Trump administration's efforts to normalize American-Russian relations. Is this incident another step towards the war?
Background: Russia Testing NATO
Poland and the Baltic States — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — were targets of hybrid activities by Russian and Belarusian forces even before the war in Ukraine began. They aimed to test the capabilities of the civil and military staff of the eastern flank of NATO.
As early as June 2021, Belarus initiated the migration crisis. Their authorities deceitfully transported thousands of migrants from the Middle East to the borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, and then forced them to cross them. Attempts were met with a response from the military, border guards, and police, and the situation quickly escalated into a humanitarian crisis. Consequently, a state of emergency has been declared in some counties in Poland, and a barrier was built at the border with Belarus. These actions have served to test the response of the police, border guards, and military to crises involving mass and uncontrolled migration of people.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, many people suspected of having ties to Russian intelligence services have been detained. This is partly due to Russian intelligence being responsible for several diversionary actions carried out on the territory of the alliance. The acts of diversion included, among other things, arson or attempted arson on Polish territory. As a result of that, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs revoked its consent for Russian consultants to operate in Poznań and Kraków, to which its Russian counterpart responded with similar measures against Polish consulates in Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad. The reason for these diversionary actions can be seen as a test of the response of fire departments and other services to crises involving ignitions.
As expected, Russia has not officially classified drone intrusions as an act of aggression against NATO. On the contrary, the Russian government suggests that the drones violated Polish airspace by mistake – as has already been the case with other flying objects, also over Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – and the Russian ambassador to the United Nations claims that the drones could not even reach Poland, which is mutually exclusive. However, the operation was most likely intended to assess the reaction of the NATO Air Forces and other institutions.
The Drone Raid
On Tuesday, 9 September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border in response to the scheduled Russian-Belarusian military exercises. Only a few hours later, Russia launched an overnight airstrike against Ukraine, employing approximately 400 drones. According to the President's Office, 21 of them penetrated deep into Polish airspace, in some cases travelling several hundred kilometers.
The available information indicates that they were not armed but were only decoys. However, due to the immediate threat that this could pose, action was taken. Between 23:30 and 07:00, Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighter jets, supported by German Patriot launchers, as well as Italian and Belgian equipment, eliminated selected targets. Four airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, and Lublin were also temporarily closed, their operations being completely subordinated to military objectives. Polish citizens received a telephone warning about the ongoing military operations for the first time.
In the morning, Polish authorities reported on the successful operation and exemplary cooperation between NATO forces. This is all the more relevant given that in previous cases of foreign rockets, drones, or balloons violating Polish airspace, they were not shot down. Last week, however, things were different, and the Polish Air Force demonstrated its capability to neutralize immediate threats.
Russian Capabilities and NATO Defense
This attack carried significant military implications. Russia demonstrated its ability to strike targets deep within the Alliance at minimal cost. The cheap drones passed in close proximity to military sites, critical infrastructure, and at distances sufficient to reach Poland’s largest cities. The drone that crashed in Oleśno village could have flown past nearby Elbląg — a city of more than 100,000 inhabitants located approximately 250 kilometers from the Polish-Belarusian border, hosting numerous military facilities, including the NATO Multinational Division Northeast Headquarters — before coming down only 15 kilometers from the military air base in Malbork. In this way, Russia was able to observe and assess NATO’s procedures and coordination in the event of an aerial attack.
Military experts point out the disproportionate impact of Russian provocation on NATO resources. The one-time cost of producing a Gerber drone used by the Russian armed forces in the provocation ranges from $10,000 to $20,000, while the one-time cost of producing an example missile equipped on an F-16 fighter jet – AMRAAM – is between $2,000,000 and $2,500,000. Other types of missiles for various jet fighters and missile launchers, as well as the costs of operating a fighter jet and batteries in themselves, also involve high costs. Furthermore, Russian provocation has the potential to cause significant costs associated with the shutdown of airports and critical infrastructure facilities. Commentators emphasize that while human life and national security are precious, in the long run, it is impossible to wage a conflict with such a cost disparity, and that NATO countries should develop cheaper anti-drone defense systems.
Various rockets, drones, and balloons have previously been spotted in NATO airspace. However, these were always individual cases, rather than a large-scale operation. In this case, it cannot be considered an accident, especially since some of the drones flew in from Belarusian territory for the first time.
Political, Diplomatic, and Military Consequences
The attack on Ukrainian territory and the provocation within Polish airspace undermine the peace efforts of the Trump administration and signal the prospect of further aggressive actions.
In the aftermath of the drone incursion in Poland, the immediate political disputes have subsided for the moment. The meetings of the National Security Bureau and the National Security Council, attended by President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk, were held, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires to deliver a formal note of protest. In addition, Polish authorities invoked NATO’s Article 4 mechanism, enabling urgent consultations among the member states, and remained in constant contact with key ally figures: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, among others. On 12 September, the meeting of the United Nations Security Council took place, and NATO announced the launch of the “Eastern Sentry” operation.
The “Eastern Sentry” includes anti-drone systems, anti-aircraft weapons, and improved systems for the exchange of information between member states. In addition, fighter jets from Germany, France, and Denmark are also reportedly to take part in the operation. The United Kingdom has also reportedly expressed readiness to participate.
However, two foreign reactions seemed particularly unfamiliar. Firstly, the Belarusian authorities warned their Polish counterparts about the possibility of airspace violation beforehand. Secondly, US President Donald Trump, following the provocation, stated that “it could have been a mistake,” which corresponds well with the official Russian propaganda. From the available information, it follows that the American military did not actively participate in operations on the night of 9-10 September, unlike forces from some European countries – the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Belgium. These two aspects combined raise questions about basing Poland's defence strategy on the United States and downplaying the role of European partners, which seems to be manifested — albeit to varying degrees — by various Polish politicians.
What’s Next? Zapad Maneuvers and the Financial Arms Race
On 12 September, the Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad 2025 or West 2025, began. These are the first Zapad maneuvers since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This year, the exercises are to include training in the use of nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system. Officially, more than 20 countries and around 13,000 soldiers are participating. In response, NATO organized its Iron Defender 2025 exercises, which involved approximately 34,000 personnel from various NATO countries.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, both NATO and Russia have also been increasing their military spending. In approximate terms, from 2022 to 2024, the military spending of Russia increased from $75B to $140B annually (86.7% increase), while NATO increased its combined military spending from $1,280B to $1,506B annually (17.7% increase). This, combined with offensive maneuvers and testing of NATO's military and civilian response systems, raises the question of what Vladimir Putin and his people will do next.
At the time of writing this article, 3 Russian fighter jets appeared in the skies over Estonia. They remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before being intercepted. The Estonian government issued a note of protest and invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This conduct, involving Russian pilots and heavy military equipment, not only tests NATO but also creates a real risk of the outbreak of a conflict in the event of a shoot-down. The matter is ongoing.
Comments